Escape speculations

[Eva Elisabeth]

(06-13-2015 02:41 PM)PaigeBooth Wrote:  This is a great topic, Eva!

Thanks, Paige - and thank you for all your fascinating replies!

(06-12-2015 07:15 AM)Jim Garrett Wrote:  The success would have hinged on an intact Confederate government. With no effective government in place, there was virtually no place to hide.

No effective government - this is why I am sceptical of the theory of a Confederate plot, at last that the carrying through at this point in time happened upon their orders.

[Thomas Kearney]

(06-13-2015 02:41 PM)PaigeBooth Wrote:  

(06-12-2015 01:32 AM)Eva Elisabeth Wrote:  This is a "what-if" question, thus I am asking for your speculations.

To me, in advance, the idea of assassinating the president in a theater box in a fully packed house during a performance and escape via the stage would have sounded most unrealistic to successfully accomplish, precisely succeeding in flight would have. But the screen-play did work out. So I wonder - theoretically, could any of the conspirators have successful escaped capture? If not, who could have made it the farthest, and how far would that have been?
If JWB hadn't broken his leg, how far could he have come? Would Canada have been the more promising destination?
And Powell - if he hadn't abandoned or lost his horse, what could he have done?
If Dr. Mudd had been more suspicious of that he might get into serious trouble, would it have made sense to flee?

Thanks for any thoughts on this!

This is a great topic, Eva!

I do think there are many things Booth and Davy could have done differently during their escape. Booth's leg was one of the biggest things that held the two back and drastically slowed them down, but still, this was something that could not really be helped once the damage was done.

One of Booth and Davy Herold's biggest mistakes, was their prolonged stay at the Indiantown farm slave cabin following their unsuccessful attempt at crossing the Potomac River on the night of April 20th. Booth and Davy arrived at the Indiantown farm on the night of April 20th, after they failed to cross the Potomac River. Booth and Davy stayed at the Indiantown farm slave cabin the night of April 20th, and they did not bother to cross the Potomac the next night, April 21st; thus, they did not leave the slave cabin and attempt to cross the Potomac again until the evening of April 22nd. I believe the reasons why Booth and Davy stayed at the slave cabin for so long is still unknown and filled with speculation, but I often think that if Booth and Davy had left the slave cabin sooner, they may have gotten much further in their failed escape. To me, it seems like they wasted a lot of precious time.

The slave cabin where they stayed still stands. Please see Dave Taylor's BoothBarn for pictures:

http://boothiebarn.com/picture-galleries/nanjemoy/

Paige is right. A broken leg could definitely slow a guy down. Davy should not have run off with Payne's horse when he heard the cries of Fannie Seward. Murder was part of the plan. He shouldn't have fled. And it is okay for two fugitives to end up on the wrong shore banks for fear of being captured.

[L Verge]

Paige - I think you are quite right that ending up back on the Maryland shore after the first attempt at crossing the Potomac and then delaying for another 24+ hours before attempting to cross again to Virginia wasted valuable time. However, we can't know what caused the delay -- Booth's pain, perhaps Herold's fatigue from rowing (he complained about his hands being blistered from rowing), conditions not optimal out on the river, other factors... . We do know that Harbin and Baden, prime movers in the Secret Line were already across and waiting at Mrs. Quesenberry's to contact them, so the underground from Maryland was doing their part to assist the fugitives. P.S. I'm not too sure that the building that still exists at Indiantown Farm is original to 1865, or that it was ever a slave cabin.

Tom - You will have to debate some historians who believe that Herold was not with Powell at the Seward House as well as others who think Herold went with Powell, but did not stay so that he could go kill Johnson or at least be on time to meet Booth at the bridge. Also, David did not run off with Powell's horse. The horse was waiting patiently when Powell emerged from the house with cries of "Murder, murder!" echoing from William Bell, the Sewards' man servant. Once Powell mounted the horse, however, the animal became reluctant to be the get-away vehicle.

[RJNorton]

I am curious - did Mary Surratt ever consider trying to escape? I think she did not have a close relationship with her mother (is "estranged" too strong a word?), so she couldn't go there. Where might she have gone? Or was she totally innocent (in her own mind) and never even thought about running?

[Jim Page]

(06-14-2015 03:55 AM)RJNorton Wrote:  did Mary Surratt ever consider trying to escape?

A fascinating question and one I've never heard (seen) asked before, Roger.

Let's look at the Lincoln assassination enterprise as consisting of three levels. Those levels might be:
• Top level: The folks who set this plan in motion to achieve certain objectives, and recruited the mid-level players, or at least the main one (Mrs. Surratt). Don't know who those folks were.
• Mid level: The players who planned the deed and recruited the low-level players. Includes Mary Surratt, John Wilkes Booth, perhaps John Surratt, Jr, and maybe unknown others.
• Low level: Players who followed orders and did no recruiting. Includes Powell, Herold, Dr. Mudd, and the others we know of. There may be unknowns at this level, too.

Some after-the-fact players aided the enterprise in a support role. These include Thomas Jones and certainly unknown others.

Theory: Mary Surratt had not planned an escape because she felt she would not be implicated. She was caught flat-footed by the speed with which the low-level portion of the enterprise came unglued and by that point, it was too late to plan or do anything. The federal government had her in their sights within hours of Lincoln being shot. Was there a tip-off from the top level to the federal government?

Mary Surratt's declining health was likely a factor in her not trying to escape, too. She wasn't the energetic, clear-headed person she had been just months before.

After hearing Booth's on-the-run report after he shot Lincoln, Mrs. Surratt sits in a darkened room waiting for what is to come. She waits for more reports from the other low-level players for her after-action report to the top level. In a larger sense, she waits for her fate. When Powell comes to report, it is all over.

Interesting subject for speculation, Roger.

--Jim

[RJNorton]

Thanks for replying, Jim. I really wonder what was in her mind. Certainly she knew she had played a role that afternoon in doing the errand for Booth. She must have realized that she would be implicated if Lloyd talked.

[Eva Elisabeth]

Re: "Mary Surratt's declining health was likely a factor in her not trying to escape, too" - and imagine her hiding in a pine thicket or sleeping in a barn...(just kidding!)

I know only little about John Surratt, just the basics of his "physical" CV, but am not familiar with his statements. Did he ever comment on his mother's "innocence", or regret he wasn't able to help her or be with her?

Although I believe Mary Surratt was guilty of knowingly cooperating in a conspiracy it was her son who had paved the way as he had been the one to link her to JWB & Co., and the initiator of making her boardinghouse the "nest that hatched the egg", so did he ever utter a regret or feel partly responsible for her death?

And what is your opinion - was he partly responsible for her death?

[RJNorton]

(06-14-2015 12:07 PM)Eva Elisabeth Wrote:  Did he ever comment on his mother's "innocence",

Hi Eva. In his Rockville, Maryland, lecture he said, "I have very little to say of Louis J. Weichmann. But I do pronounce him a base-born perjurer; a murderer of the meanest hue! Give me a man who can strike his victim dead, but save me from a man who, through perjury, will cause the death of an innocent person. Double murderer!!!! Hell possesses no worse fiend than a character of that kind. Away with such a character. I leave him in the pit of infamy, which he has dug for himself, a prey to the lights of his guilty conscience."

[L Verge]

I like Jim's theory as to levels of involvement here, but I would not place Mrs. Surratt in Level Two. I would put her son there and switch her to Level Three. Like Eva, I think she became ensnared when her son started hanging around with Booth -- and I think Booth is the one who used her as his tool to get incidental things done. I do not think he would have ever given true power to an aging female! Do I think she knew what was going on? Definitely, until you hit the question of knowing about assassination. I hedge all bets at that point.

With apologies to Bob Summers, however, I would place Dr. Mudd (and Dr. Queen) at the head of the Maryland involvement at first. They are the ones who welcomed Booth into Southern Maryland with his letters of introduction from the Canadian side. Mudd and Queen (and possibly one other) had to be known by higher level Confederates in order for Booth to be sent to them.

Queen died shortly before the assassination, so he got off easy. Mudd, however, is the one who takes Booth to Bryantown for an arranged meeting with a top member of the Secret Line - Thomas Harbin. Mudd then arranges (despite what he claimed) to meet Booth in D.C. for the purpose of recruiting John Surratt, Jr. Then comes Atzerodt, Herold, and Powell. I don't think they were recruited by Mrs. Surratt.

At the time of her arrest, I feel that the authorities were only bringing pressure to bear in order to make her divulge where her son was. I place the blame on her charges becoming deadly serious when Powell made, perhaps, the most untimely entrance in U.S. history. The house of cards all fell down after that, thanks to "corroborating evidence" from Weichmann and Lloyd - and possibly the frustration of the authorities in not being able to catch John, Jr.

P.S. I don't think Mary Surratt ever envisioned needing to have to escape. She had been a successful part of the Confederate underground for four years without ever being caught and had literally faced down Union troops as they searched her Surrattsville property. This same feeling of "comfort" in dealing with the enemy probably attributed to Mudd, Cox, Jones, Harbin, Baden, and others continuing to assist the fugitives while they were in Maryland. They had been taking risks for four years - what was one more adventure, albeit a high stakes one?

P.P.S. I don't ever remember any mention of estrangement between Mary and her mother, Bessie, until after Mary's incarceration. And, that appears to be only that Mrs. Jenkins never visited her daughter nor was quoted as to her feelings about her daughter's actions. That could likely be because of the strict Victorian codes. One never airs dirty laundry in public.

[Anita]

In post #20 above Jim Page posted:

"Theory: Mary Surratt had not planned an escape because she felt she would not be implicated. She was caught flat-footed by the speed with which the low-level portion of the enterprise came unglued and by that point, it was too late to plan or do anything. The federal government had her in their sights within hours of Lincoln being shot. Was there a tip-off from the top level to the federal government?

Mary Surratt's declining health was likely a factor in her not trying to escape, too. She wasn't the energetic, clear-headed person she had been just months before.

After hearing Booth's on-the-run report after he shot Lincoln, Mrs. Surratt sits in a darkened room waiting for what is to come. She waits for more reports from the other low-level players for her after-action report to the top level. In a larger sense, she waits for her fate. When Powell comes to report, it is all over."

Jim, this makes a lot of sense to me. I'd like to add that IMO Mary Surrratt didn't want her son John in on the assassination plot. Working with the Confederacy to undermine the Union was one level of risk. Failure of the assassination plot meant death to the conspirators. She was protecting him by making sure he stayed away from DC. She didn't believe that as a woman her life would be at stake if caught. So she willingly became the key player working with Booth in the plot.

I believe she did not want John to risk his life for hers and while in prison worked with the Catholic priests to insure his escape and protect him.

That's my two cents. Thanks for the topic Eva.

[HerbS]

Anita,I agree with your two cents 100%!

[Eva Elisabeth]

(06-14-2015 12:47 PM)RJNorton Wrote:  

(06-14-2015 12:07 PM)Eva Elisabeth Wrote:  Did he ever comment on his mother's "innocence",

Hi Eva. In his Rockville, Maryland, lecture he said, "I have very little to say of Louis J. Weichmann. But I do pronounce him a base-born perjurer; a murderer of the meanest hue! Give me a man who can strike his victim dead, but save me from a man who, through perjury, will cause the death of an innocent person. Double murderer!!!! Hell possesses no worse fiend than a character of that kind. Away with such a character. I leave him in the pit of infamy, which he has dug for himself, a prey to the lights of his guilty conscience."

Thanks Roger - if this is all it seems to me his mother didn't matter much to him. As I
said, since he was the one to get her into all that and since it was "his thing" rather than his mother's, he IMO was more responsible for her hanging than Weichmann was. How easy to put all the blame on him. Plus on another thread the opinion prevailed that his surrender to the police would probably have saved her live.

[RJNorton]

(06-15-2015 12:47 PM)Eva Elisabeth Wrote:  Thanks Roger - if this is all it seems to me his mother didn't matter much to him.

Eva, I would like to join the others in thanking you for posting such an interesting topic!

(06-14-2015 02:49 PM)L Verge Wrote:  At the time of her arrest, I feel that the authorities were only bringing pressure to bear in order to make her divulge where her son was. I place the blame on her charges becoming deadly serious when Powell made, perhaps, the most untimely entrance in U.S. history. The house of cards all fell down after that, thanks to "corroborating evidence" from Weichmann and Lloyd - and possibly the frustration of the authorities in not being able to catch John, Jr.

I am curious if anyone would like to speculate - how would things have turned out for Mary Surratt if Powell NEVER came back to her boardinghouse? Assuming she nonetheless would have gone to trial, would she still have hanged?

[Jim Page]

(06-15-2015 01:25 PM)RJNorton Wrote:  I am curious if anyone would like to speculate - how would things have turned out for Mary Surratt if Powell NEVER came back to her boardinghouse? Assuming she nonetheless would have gone to trial, would she still have hanged?

Roger, I think the federal government had evidence or at least knowledge about Mrs. Surratt's activities that were never brought up in the trial, because they didn't need to and didn't want to introduce it. That's why, in my view, clemency for her wasn't seriously considered.

--Jim

[HerbS]

Jim,I agree with your opinion 100%.