What exactly did happen on the "Fatal First?"

[Mike B.]

I know we have all heard of the "Fatal First of January '41."

This is the date that historians in the past have mostly given that as the date of the breaking of an engagement by Lincoln and Mary Todd.

(Nobody now accepts the story that Lincoln left Mary at the alter that day.)

However, over the past 20 years or so, there has been some feeling that the "fatal first" has nothing to do with a broken engagement since Mary and Lincoln may not have even both been in Springfield that day.

Here is part of the text that the phrase comes from in a letter from Lincoln to Joshua Speed:

"To Joshua F. Speed
Dear Speed: Springfield, March 27th. 1842

...But on that other subject, to me of the most intense interest, whether in joy or sorrow, I never had the power to withhold my sympathy from you. It can not be told, how it now thrills me with joy, to hear you say you are ``far happier than you ever expected to be.'' That much I know is enough. I know you too well to suppose your expectations were not, at least sometimes, extravagant; and if the reality exceeds them all, I say, enough, dear Lord. I am not going beyond the truth, when I tell you, that the short space it took me to read your last letter, gave me more pleasure, than the total sum of all I have enjoyed since that fatal first of Jany.'41. Since then, it seems to me, I should have been entirely happy, but for the never-absent idea, that there is one still unhappy whom I have contributed to make so. That still kills my soul. I can not but reproach myself, for even wishing to be happy while she is otherwise. She accompanied a large party on the Rail Road cars, to Jack-sonville last monday; and on her return, spoke, so that I heard of it, of having enjoyed the trip exceedingly. God be praised for that.

You know with what sleepless vigilance I have watched you, ever since the commencement of your affair; and altho' I am now almost confident it is useless, I can not forbear once more to say that I think it is even yet possible for your spirits to flag down and leave you miserable. If they should, dont fail to remember that they can not long remain so.

One thing I can tell you which I know you will be glad to hear; and that is, that I have seen Sarah, and scrutinized her feelings as well as I could, and am fully convinced, she is far happier now, than she has been for the last fifteen months past..."

Lincoln is happy that Speed is happy in his new marriage and sad and guilty about his own behavior to Mary Todd.

But what is the "fatal first?"

Douglas Wilson has surmised it has something to do with Speed and not Lincoln.

If so, there is a hint I think in what Lincoln says about "Sarah" or Sarah Rickard. When Speed showed Herndon these letters he wanted to make sure that Herndon left her name out of the story.

Rickard at the time was a teenager. Speed was considered by some a bit of a wild lady's man. Is it possible Lincoln is referring to some sexual encounter Speed had with Rickard on New Year's Day that they both regretted and Speed may have referred to it to Lincoln as "the fatal first" in shorthand between them?

The fifteen months from when the letter is written takes us back to about January 1841. Is Lincoln's "scrutinizing" Sarah's feelings mean she has come to terms with what happened and is no longer upset and Lincoln is trying to assuage any guilt Speed had?

Any other theories? Or am I way off?