What Made the Civil War Unavoidable?

[wpbinzel]

(07-27-2019 04:37 PM)Steve Wrote:  This Quora contributor is incorrect the Democratic split led to Lincoln's election. Based on the 1860 state vote totals, the only two states Lincoln won which likely would have gone to a combined Democratic ticket were California and Oregon. The split New Jersey electoral vote would've gone to the Democratic ticket. This leads to a whopping net loss of 11 electoral votes, giving Lincoln 169 electoral votes (instead of 180) with 152 electoral votes needed to be elected President outright.

Thanks, Steve, for posting this. I do not know how many times I have read or heard that Lincoln won in 1860 only because the Democrats' votes were splintered among three candidates, and I cringe each and every time. I agree with your analysis: the only states where Lincoln received electoral votes without a majority of the popular vote were CA (4), OR (3), and NJ (4), and in which Lincoln won 32.32%, 36.20%, and 48.13% of the popular vote, respectively. In 15 other states, Lincoln received 50.69% or more of the popular vote, which gave him (as Steve points out) 169 electoral votes out of 303. Lincoln only needed 152.