Absent a break injury, how far would JWB gotten?

[L Verge]

Since I am a lone wolf in believing that Booth stuck to his intended flight plan despite his broken leg, I am going to continue to surmise the situation thusly:

First, I still contend that Herold made the trip to Southern Maryland on April 12-13 to alert the Maryland underground that something was still going to happen very quickly. I believe that Dr. Mudd was at least one of those alerted because I still contend that they intended to go to his out-of-the-way farm for respite no matter what. We've argued that point before, and I'm not budging. However, I think his departure from Mudd's was impeded greatly by the broken leg. He did not intend to be there for twelve hours.

I also think that the late departure there caused the fugitives to get off track from the directions that Dr. Mudd gave them as to how to avoid Zekiah Swamp - which they did enter only briefly (contrary to the popular history). The meanderings that eventually got them to Samuel Cox cost precious time. I think Thomas Jones should have taken over their care much sooner than when he was alerted to help. If he had been able to use the cover of night sooner - before the hordes of dreaded Yankees arrived in Southern Maryland for real! - they might have made it across the Potomac sooner and in one trip. As it turned out, it appears that it took Harbin and Baden acting as decoys to cross the Potomac further down and attract the Union hordes in their direction. Of course, their first venture into the Potomac's strong currents that propelled them back to Maryland didn't help either.

Once they reached the more hostile environs of Virginia, I think they were slowed even further by getting minimal help from people like Elizabeth Quesenberry and Dr. Stuart. I would agree with Eva that William and Betty Rollins' identification of Booth, Herold, and especially Willie Jett was critical to their final demise. The ferry at the Rappahannock was a key point to be searched by the troops and yielded the best of clues.

Now, as to their destination, I also believe the map route to Mexico. There were still former blockade runners and privateers operating out of minor, makeshift ports further south that might be hired at some point. I would have considered making a run for Cuba to get into the Gulf of Mexico - from which I would seek help from the Trans-Mississippi faction of the Confederacy that intended to fight to the bitter end. They could possibly get the pair into Galveston, Texas, and then into Mexico or to Brownsville, which is a next-door-neighbor to Matamoras, Mexico, where a lot of Confederate forces were entrenched.

I would refer you back to discussions about the Knights of the Golden Circle or, better yet, read David Keehn's excellent book on the subject. If you understand the perimeters of what the Golden Circle included, you will understand my reasoning. In my mind, Booth was hearkening back to pre-war plans to continue extending the Southern, slave-based economy further south. Several parts of modern South America are still inhabited by descendants of Confederates who sought self-exile in those lands. Go where your friends are is my motto...