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RJNorton · 08-07-2015, 12:45 PM

(08-07-2015 11:30 AM)John Fazio Wrote:
(08-07-2015 09:55 AM)Rick Smith Wrote:
(08-07-2015 09:31 AM)John Fazio Wrote:
(08-07-2015 06:43 AM)J. Beckert Wrote: While Demond's account is new to me, I take exception to the fact that Booth wouldn't have crossed unless he was certain of passage. Nothing was more uncertain to him than gaining entrance to the box at Ford's and he'd just stabbed a man that tried to interfere with his mission. I don't see him avoiding the bridge because of a password.

J. Beckert:

To begin with, gaining entrance to the box was not as uncertain as you suggest. In fact, if one accepts the theories of some assassination historians, such as Eisenschiml and Mills, it wasn't uncertain at all, because part of the conspiracy was Parker's absence from the passageway. I don't go that far, but I do believe Booth was quite certain he could gain access using a forged authorization from Lincoln, couple with a dry run to assess the difficulty.

Second, how do you suppose he would have crossed without the certainty given by a password? What if Cobb had strictly enforced General Order No. 5, which prohibited passage after 9:00 without a countersign and a pass? Kauffman believes he was duty-bound to do so. What would Booth have done? Would he have shot Cobb? Then he would have had to shoot the rest of the detail, which, of course, would have raised an alarm on the Maryland side, which would have prohibited his crossing there. Would he have relied on luck? Good looks? A gratuity? Confederates in the wings prepared to force passage? All these measures have weaknesses; none offers certainty. He needed certainty and the idea hit upon by his handlers and superiors was most likely the password idea, because nothing else would offer the same assurance of passage.

John

[i]
(08-07-2015 07:02 AM)Rick Smith Wrote:
(08-07-2015 06:43 AM)J. Beckert Wrote: While Demond's account is new to me, I take exception to the fact that Booth wouldn't have crossed unless he was certain of passage. Nothing was more uncertain to him than gaining entrance to the box at Ford's and he'd just stabbed a man that tried to interfere with his mission. I don't see him avoiding the bridge because of a password.

Well said, and I believe an accurate view of Booth's mindset: nothing was going to stop him completing his mission, short of death.

Rick:

A lot of things could easily have stopped him. See pp. 160-164 of "Decapitating". Let's just take one: Rathbone might have had a better grip on his jacket and kept him from going over the balustrade. Here's another: he might have broken his tibia instead of his fibula, in which case he would not have been able to walk.

John

John,

But Rathbone did not have a better grip on Booth's coat and he did not break his fibula and he was able to move on.

Rick

Rick:

Your saying that "nothing was going to stop him" means that success or failure was purely a matter of his volition. I am saying that that is not true; that factors independent of his volition could easily have thwarted his purpose irrespective of how carefully he had planned the deed. The fact that Rathbone's grip was not strong enough and the fact that Booth did not break his tibia thus become immaterial. See pages 160-164 of my book for a discussion of all the things that could have gone wrong for Booth, thereby wrecking his purpose, regardless of how determined he was in that purpose. To put a finer point on the matter, consider that nearly everything that could have gone wrong with the other would-be assassins did go wrong!

John

In his Robert Lincoln bio Jason Emerson writes:

"One of Robert's later friends suggested that perhaps the greatest effect of the assassination on Robert was the overwhelming guilt it caused him, in that he never forgave himself for his absence at Ford's Theatre that night. As the youngest member of the presidential party, Robert would have sat at the back of the box, closest to the door. According to Butler, Robert always felt that had he been there, "Booth would have had to deal with him before he could have shot the president."

Does anyone think Robert's presence could possibly have made a difference?