Escape speculations

[Eva Elisabeth]

This is a "what-if" question, thus I am asking for your speculations.

To me, in advance, the idea of assassinating the president in a theater box in a fully packed house during a performance and escape via the stage would have sounded most unrealistic to successfully accomplish, precisely succeeding in flight would have. But the screen-play did work out. So I wonder - theoretically, could any of the conspirators have successful escaped capture? If not, who could have made it the farthest, and how far would that have been?
If JWB hadn't broken his leg, how far could he have come? Would Canada have been the more promising destination?
And Powell - if he hadn't abandoned or lost his horse, what could he have done?
If Dr. Mudd had been more suspicious of that he might get into serious trouble, would it have made sense to flee?

Thanks for any thoughts on this!

[RJNorton]

Eva, I cannot think of an answer, just another question. I realize the "Confederate theory" is a subject for debate and not accepted by all (accepted by some authors, rejected by others). If it were true, though, then we have a series of plans to attack Lincoln and the government (Booth's plan being only one). Harney, who planned to blow up part of the White House, was captured April 9. But if he had succeeded were there set plans for his escape from Washington? When Harney failed, the attack plan was then given to Booth's action team (as I understand the Confederate theory). What plans were made for Booth and the boys to escape?

[Jim Garrett]

The success would have hinged on an intact Confederate government. With no effective government in place, there was virtually no place to hide.

[L Verge]

Call me an optimist, but I still think that Booth's men planned on going in different directions when they left the city -- Booth heading south with Herold's help in getting him across the river, Powell heading to Baltimore for help from the Bransons, and Atzerodt probably planning on slinking back to Port Tobacco when the coast was clear.

Of course, the broken leg was the biggest hitch in the plans as far as reducing the speed of transferring Booth from one agent to another in Southern Maryland. Once across the river, I think they expected help from Mosby or similar partisans (and got it in the form of Jett and company until Betty Rollins's knowledge of Jett's love affair put a crimp in that!).

I still think that Texas and/or Mexico - The Knights of the Golden Circle territory - was Booth's intended goal. He would have stayed close to the coast and hoped for help from a left-over Confederate privateer somewhere in North Carolina or South Carolina. That's how I would script the movie...

I don't think that Canada was ever a consideration as a refuge after the assassination.

[HerbS]

Didn't Booth want to hide in the Caribbean somewhere? I would go there right now and vacation!

[Jim Page]

This subject is one I've thought about a lot. I've also wondered where Lee Harvey Oswald planned to go after shooting President Kennedy, and then Officer Tippit.

In Oswald's case, I suspect Cuba via Mexico was where he hoped to go. He had no money on him to speak of. Since he had been in the Civil Air Patrol as a kid, maybe he thought he could swipe a plane and fly south.

Booth probably expected to be celebrated as a hero once he crossed the Potomac, and envisioned a triumphal journey to Mexico. He must have done quite a bit of cursing as he got closer to Garrett's farm and his fate. He probably hoped to go south by train, since he had given away (again; one of my opinions) his horses and riding one was painful for him.

Eva wrote:
>>could any of the conspirators have successful escaped capture?

I think a number of the higher-ups or enablers did escape capture. There must have been some squirming going on by those folks but the code of honor served them well.

--Jim

[SSlater]

We have a hard time trying to make our minds work the same way that Booth's worked. We create a hundred ways he could have done it better. (not that we want to shoot Lincoln). He had an escape route, plenty of help from those who thought as he did, and a leg in small pieces. None of this was important to Booth. He WANTED people see him do it. He WANTED people see him prance across the stage - yelling political slogans. He WANTED to take a bow, and exit "stage-right", to the cheers of an appreciative audience. UGH! Later he wrote in his diary -that he didn't understand why the world didn't adore him for what he did. I think he expected to be asked to come back to Washington, for a formal parade down Pennsylvania Ave. on top of a fire truck. He was sick.

I wonder how many of the Policemen, and the Army and the Navy personnel, who looked for him, were doing the best job possible.
Did you know that Gideon Welles issued an order to the Navy, to stay out of the chase, that it was the Army's job to catch him?

[BettyO]

Quote:Call me an optimist, but I still think that Booth's men planned on going in different directions when they left the city -- Booth heading south with Herold's help in getting him across the river, Powell heading to Baltimore for help from the Bransons, and Atzerodt probably planning on slinking back to Port Tobacco when the coast was clear.

Agreed! Booth was apparently trying to make it to Ashland, VA. If he could catch a train (although doubtful as the rail lines were pretty torn up) or carriage there, he could have made it perhaps to Norfolk, VA where he could catch a ship to either Cuba, Mexico or even Europe. JMO.....

[RJNorton]

Hi Betty. This is one of the reasons why I have some difficulty in accepting the Confederate plot theory. I would think that if the Confederate government/operatives ordered the "hit" on Lincoln and others then there would have been a set/firm escape plan in place for Booth and his boys. I just don't see solid evidence of this. Possibly Herold was in the country on the 12th/13th rounding up support, possibly Powell would head to Baltimore after the Seward attack, perhaps provisions were stored at Mudd's, and Mary Surratt apparently asked the time the pickets would leave their guard duty on the road to Surrattsville. So to me this sounds more like a plot that came from John Wilkes Booth, not Richmond. Would the Confederate government really give assassination orders but leave out a set plan of escape for the perpetrators?

[BettyO]

Good question, Roger! I truly think that Benjamin, Davis, et al. would have more or less fended for themselves; which they definitely seemed to do. By the time of Richmond's fall and Davis' escape to Danville, I think that the Confederate government had all but given up on any plan to kidnap or otherwise re: Lincoln and his cabinet. At that point I think Booth could have simply acted on his own resources or misinterpreted signals; i.e. "crossed wires." Could he have still been influenced by the Canadian or NY Copperhead groups? We don't know - and therein lies the charm of the entire mystery. It does appear, at least to me, that JWB and Herold were going one way and Powell another. Powell, I believe was of course, bent on skedaddling back to Baltimore and the Branson household. More or less, he could have had ideas of heading up to Canada. Again, we really don't know.....

[Jim Page]

There are so many views through this kaleidoscope; twist your perspective just a bit and it all forms a different pattern.

As many of you know, I regard Mrs. Surratt as a prime mover in this effort, and I think powerful folks, perhaps aligned with the Copperheads, were directing her, and through her, Booth and his little band. It could be that the Confederate government, preoccupied with their own troubles, had been tipped off as to what might occur in Washington.

At that point, I suspect they knew it was a sideshow that wouldn't help the Confederacy in any way and wanted no part of Booth's actions smearing them. A Confederate cavalry group may have been assigned the task not of assisting Booth, but of silencing him if he pulled off his assignment.

The federal government may have blundered into inadvertently assisting the directors of Lincoln's assassination by quickly silencing four of the key agents and putting the others far from anyone who wanted to know what really happened and by whom and to what purpose.

I further suspect that the Copperheads--or whomever--had Lincoln killed not to help the Confederacy in any way, but to further their financial or control objectives.

Who knows?

--Jim

[L Verge]

I like Jim's perspective on the situation also. However, I'm still holding to the idea that the escape route had been in place for months - ever since Booth dropped into Bryantown for church services in November. Maybe I'm placing too much faith in my Southern Maryland ancestors, but they had been pretty darn good at maintaining the Secret Line inside Union-held territory for most of the war.

Before Richmond fell in the first week of April, those same operatives still had the original plans in mind -- and Herold's visit on the 12th and/or 13th was intended to alert key players that something was still going to happen and to be ready to put those plans in action. There was no time to devise a new escape plan - I don't think that the gang ever planned to make their escape together in one direction.

It seems to me that the Maryland portion of the Line did a pretty good job of hiding Booth and getting him across the Potomac by using the same operatives that had been so effective during the War. Even in Virginia, I think everyone (except perhaps Dr. Stuart) did their part. I don't think that the Garretts had ever been part of the Secret Line, however; and the fact that they valued their horses enough to lock the barn door made all the difference.

I will admit that receiving assistance further down the line (after leaving the Northern Neck) would likely have been much more difficult. The war's effects on anything further South would greatly hinder movement unless they could successfully blend into the decrepit Confederate troops who were heading home.

[RJNorton]

(06-13-2015 09:33 AM)Jim Page Wrote:  As many of you know, I regard Mrs. Surratt as a prime mover in this effort, and I think powerful folks, perhaps aligned with the Copperheads, were directing her

Hi Jim. This is a fascinating theory, but don't you think Weichmann would have been aware (or at least suspicious) if "powerful folks, perhaps aligned with the Copperheads, were directing her?" Living in the boardinghouse wouldn't he have seen something if she were being directed as such?

[Jim Page]

(06-13-2015 12:44 PM)RJNorton Wrote:  This is a fascinating theory, but don't you think Weichmann would have been aware (or at least suspicious) if "powerful folks, perhaps aligned with the Copperheads, were directing her?" Living in the boardinghouse wouldn't he have seen something if she were being directed as such?

Hey, Roger--

That's a valid question, with more than one plausible answer.

Weichmann strikes me as the Kato Kaelin of the Lincoln assassination in some respects. He might have been on the spot but he somehow failed to connect the dots.

It's been too long since I read his book, but I recall Mrs. Surratt asking pickets about their duty hours, asking Weichmann to bless her secret intentions, John Surratt coming and going, whispering groups meeting behind closed doors at the boarding house and in other places while Weichmann stared at his feet, I guess.

Whatever his good qualities were, he was in my view a Dr. Watson-type who saw the same things others might see and never quite got what he was seeing.

Again, these are just my opinions and worth just what you paid for them: Nothing!

Best regards--

--Jim

[PaigeBooth]

(06-12-2015 01:32 AM)Eva Elisabeth Wrote:  This is a "what-if" question, thus I am asking for your speculations.

To me, in advance, the idea of assassinating the president in a theater box in a fully packed house during a performance and escape via the stage would have sounded most unrealistic to successfully accomplish, precisely succeeding in flight would have. But the screen-play did work out. So I wonder - theoretically, could any of the conspirators have successful escaped capture? If not, who could have made it the farthest, and how far would that have been?
If JWB hadn't broken his leg, how far could he have come? Would Canada have been the more promising destination?
And Powell - if he hadn't abandoned or lost his horse, what could he have done?
If Dr. Mudd had been more suspicious of that he might get into serious trouble, would it have made sense to flee?

Thanks for any thoughts on this!

This is a great topic, Eva!

I do think there are many things Booth and Davy could have done differently during their escape. Booth's leg was one of the biggest things that held the two back and drastically slowed them down, but still, this was something that could not really be helped once the damage was done.

One of Booth and Davy Herold's biggest mistakes, was their prolonged stay at the Indiantown farm slave cabin following their unsuccessful attempt at crossing the Potomac River on the night of April 20th. Booth and Davy arrived at the Indiantown farm on the night of April 20th, after they failed to cross the Potomac River. Booth and Davy stayed at the Indiantown farm slave cabin the night of April 20th, and they did not bother to cross the Potomac the next night, April 21st; thus, they did not leave the slave cabin and attempt to cross the Potomac again until the evening of April 22nd. I believe the reasons why Booth and Davy stayed at the slave cabin for so long is still unknown and filled with speculation, but I often think that if Booth and Davy had left the slave cabin sooner, they may have gotten much further in their failed escape. To me, it seems like they wasted a lot of precious time.

The slave cabin where they stayed still stands. Please see Dave Taylor's BoothBarn for pictures:

http://boothiebarn.com/picture-galleries/nanjemoy/